The 2015 Paris Agreement saw nations pledge to keep global warming well below 2 °C, ideally under 1.5 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. This target refers to the average global surface air temperature measured over a 20-year period. While earlier estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested the 1.5 °C limit would be reached between 2030 and 2035, new research suggests that threshold may be crossed much sooner.
A recent study led by climate scientist Gottfried Kirchengast from the Wegener Center and Institute of Physics at the University of Graz revises that forecast. According to the study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, global temperatures could exceed the 1.5 °C limit as early as 2028, with a margin of error of plus or minus two years.
The team’s new benchmark record offers what they describe as unprecedented accuracy in tracking global temperature rise. It not only improves monitoring reliability but also supports a standardized framework to assess whether nations are meeting their Paris climate targets.
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Traditionally, over oceans, temperature data has been collected from the upper layers of seawater using drifting buoys rather than measuring the air temperature above the surface. This method has introduced a level of uncertainty that has proven difficult to resolve—until now. The University of Graz team addressed this issue by incorporating the most reliable data from international climate centers to reconstruct a consistent global surface air temperature record spanning from 1850 to 2024, with projections extending to 2034 and scenario analyses through 2050.
"Our data show a 6% higher rise in global surface air temperature compared to traditional monitoring methods," Kirchengast noted.
Moritz Pichler, co-author of the study, emphasized the model’s predictive capabilities: "We can separate human-driven warming from natural variability like El Niño, and forecast the annual mean temperature of a given year—such as 2025—as early as the previous August."
To enhance accountability, the researchers propose a four-tiered compliance scale to quantify how closely global efforts align with the Paris Agreement targets. This scale would provide a measurable basis for evaluating progress in both political and legal contexts.
Kirchengast advocates for integrating this assessment framework within existing international bodies such as the World Meteorological Organization and the IPCC. Doing so, he argues, would offer member nations a consistent and transparent method for tracking climate compliance under the Paris Agreement.